Statz Power Rankings rate every League Two team for underlying strength using historical goal data, expected goals (xG) for and against, and team market value. Recent matches are weighted more heavily than older ones. The result is two component ratings — attack and defence — and an overall rating. Teams with the highest overall ratings are the strongest by these measures, regardless of league position. The full rankings are here, with recent form and each club's movement since last week.
Power rankings rate every League Two team for underlying strength using historical goal data, expected goals (xG) for and against, and team market value. The result is two component ratings (attack and defence) and an overall rating. Teams with the highest overall ratings are the strongest by these measures, regardless of league position.
Our model combines historical goal data with expected goals (xG) — a measure of shot quality — for and against each team. Recent matches are weighted more heavily than older ones. Team market value is also considered as a stable measure of squad quality. The result is benchmarked against the league average to produce attack and defence ratings.
League position rewards results. Power rankings reward underlying performance — the strength of attack and defence regardless of whether that has converted to wins. Teams with strong xG profiles but bad luck (missed chances, low conversion) often rank higher in power than in the table. Over time, rankings and table position tend to converge as variance evens out.
Power rankings update weekly, every Tuesday morning after the weekend's matches are settled. Mid-week European fixtures (Champions League, Europa League) feed into the next Tuesday's update.
Power rankings give a team-strength view that complements bookmaker prices. When the model rates a team materially higher than their league position suggests, that team's match prices often offer value. For fixture-level betting analysis, see our Best Bets page, which uses the same underlying model output applied to specific markets.
Power rankings reflect underlying team strength based on historical data and xG. They aren't predictions for any specific match — variance means stronger teams still lose individual fixtures regularly. Use them as a baseline view of team quality, not as match-by-match forecasts.
| Rank | Team | Attack | Defence | Overall | League position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grimsby Town | 1.57 | 1.24 | 0.3 | 11 |
| 2 | Barnet | 1.64 | 1.34 | 0.3 | 2 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 1.55 | 1.24 | 0.3 | 16 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 1.62 | 1.31 | 0.3 | 1 |
| 5 | Salford City | 1.33 | 1.04 | 0.3 | 20 |
| 6 | York City | 1.69 | 1.48 | 0.2 | 6 |
| 7 | Oldham Athletic | 1.48 | 1.32 | 0.2 | 5 |
| 8 | Rotherham United | 1.37 | 1.24 | 0.1 | 13 |
| 9 | Port Vale | 1.18 | 1.14 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | Colchester United | 1.29 | 1.26 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 1.26 | 1.28 | -0 | 12 |
| 12 | Walsall | 1.46 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 13 | Crewe Alexandra | 1.25 | 1.32 | -0.1 | 4 |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 1.35 | 1.47 | -0.1 | 9 |
| 15 | Cheltenham Town | 1.33 | 1.52 | -0.2 | 7 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 1.28 | 1.51 | -0.2 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 1.13 | 1.38 | -0.3 | 19 |
| 18 | Northampton Town | 1.16 | 1.45 | -0.3 | 18 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury Town | 0.99 | 1.27 | -0.3 | 22 |
| 20 | Tranmere Rovers | 1.25 | 1.58 | -0.3 | 10 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 1.18 | 1.53 | -0.4 | 17 |
| 22 | Gillingham | 1.18 | 1.54 | -0.4 | 21 |
| 23 | Newport County | 1.21 | 1.63 | -0.4 | 14 |
| 24 | Accrington Stanley | 1.15 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 23 |