Bristol Rovers lead the League Two on expected points in 2026/2027, with 10.8 xG created and 4.6 conceded across their matches. Chesterfield have the biggest gap between results and underlying numbers — 4 points from chances worth 7.1 xPts. The tables here cover 48 matches and sort on every column; the full expected-points table, with qualification and relegation places applied, lives in the xG view on the Table page.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
An xG table ranks clubs by the quality of the chances they create and concede rather than by the goals that happened to go in. Every shot is scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted, and those values are summed into expected goals for (League Two xG) and against (xGA).
Expected points. Each finished match is run through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, which produces a win, draw and loss probability; the team is then awarded three points and one point weighted by those probabilities. Summed across the season it estimates the points a club's performances were worth.
Usually a mix of clinical finishing, good goalkeeping and luck. Finishing skill is real but small and hard to sustain, so a large positive gap between points and xPts more often signals results that will drift back towards the underlying numbers than a permanently better team.
Shot-level data is supplied by Sportmonks and updates after every finished match, typically within a few hours of full-time. Different providers train their xG models on different data, so our figures will not match another site's exactly, though the ranking is generally similar.
| # | Team | Played | xG | xGA | xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 4 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Rotherham United | 4 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 4 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 4 | Grimsby Town | 4 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | York City | 4 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Exeter City | 4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 |
| 7 | Crewe Alexandra | 4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Walsall | 4 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Oldham Athletic | 4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Barnet | 4 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 |
| 11 | Shrewsbury Town | 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 |
| 12 | Crawley Town | 4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | -0.4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 13 | Salford City | 4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Colchester United | 4 | 5.8 | 6.4 | -0.5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 15 | Port Vale | 4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | -0.5 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Accrington Stanley | 4 | 7.2 | 8.2 | -1.0 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Northampton Town | 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 4 | 5.0 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 4 | 4.3 | 6.6 | -2.4 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Newport County | 4 | 4.1 | 7.4 | -3.3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 21 | Tranmere Rovers | 4 | 4.4 | 6.5 | -2.1 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 22 | Cheltenham Town | 4 | 4.4 | 7.3 | -2.9 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
| 23 | Swindon Town | 4 | 2.7 | 6.2 | -3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 4 | 3.0 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |